Ankara: As Europe contends with the dual challenges of declining US engagement in NATO and persisting fears of Russia, Trkiye is emerging as a pivotal partner in reshaping the continent's defense posture, according to a leading analyst.
According to Anadolu Agency, Timothy Ash, a senior emerging markets strategist and long-time Trkiye analyst, believes Ankara is uniquely positioned to help fill the strategic and industrial gaps that now confront European defense planning. In an interview with Anadolu, Ash highlighted the fundamental shifts in Europe's security architecture, driven in part by the leadership style of US President Donald Trump and the waning American military backstop that European NATO allies have long relied on.
Ash noted that the US security support for Europe and NATO is diminishing rapidly, which coincides with Europe's significant vulnerabilities in defense spending and military-industrial production, alongside the threat from Russia. He emphasized that although Europe possesses advanced military technologies, its capacity to rapidly scale production in response to increasing threats is limited.
Trkiye, with its considerable military and growing defense industry, could bridge this gap, according to Ash. He stated that Trkiye's ability to scale up production could help Europe address immediate supply gaps in defense manufacturing. Trkiye has the largest military in Europe, outside of Ukraine and Russia, with nearly 400,000 troops, and could assist countries like France and the UK in maintaining a credible peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
Furthermore, Ankara has the potential to collaborate with European nations in technology exchanges, combining Europe's scientific expertise with Trkiye's manufacturing capacity. Ash cited the collaboration between Turkish drone producer Baykar and Italy's defense contractor Leonardo as a promising sign of growing defense partnerships, anticipating more such collaborations driven by mutual interests in countering regional threats and diversifying supply chains.
Trkiye's importance extends beyond military aspects, as Ash highlighted the country's value to Europe in terms of economic integration and energy diversification. With its extensive manufacturing base embedded within European supply chains, particularly in the automotive sector, Trkiye can help the continent address challenges like the influx of Chinese electric vehicle imports.
On the energy front, Trkiye's geographic location positions it as a crucial energy transit hub, offering alternative supply routes from Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and the Middle East that could aid Europe in reducing its dependence on Russian gas. This aligns with Europe's accelerated energy transition and push for renewables.
Despite the potential for strategic cooperation, Ash acknowledged the political obstacles in Trkiye's relations with the EU. He noted that Trkiye's EU accession bid has been stalled due to setbacks under former French President Nicolas Sarkozy and ex-German Chancellor Angela Merkel, along with internal political developments in Trkiye. Nevertheless, Ash believes the war in Ukraine has prompted a reevaluation and a new realism in European capitals, making national security the continent's top priority.
Europe needs to recognize its inability to sustain its own defense, according to Ash, who stressed the importance of compromises such as updating the EU-Trkiye Customs Union to facilitate deeper cooperation.