Doha: The International Air Transport Association (IATA): released its latest financial outlook for the global airline industry showing a stabilisation of profitability even as supply chain issues persist.
According to Jordan News Agency, airlines are expected to achieve a combined total net profit of $41 billion in 2026, up from $39.5 billion in 2025. While this would set a new record, the net profit margin is expected to remain unchanged from 2025 at 3.9%. Net profit per passenger transported is expected to be $7.90, which is below the 2023 high of $8.50 and unchanged from 2025.
Operating profit in 2026 is projected to be $72.8 billion, rising from $67.0 billion in 2025, resulting in a net operating margin of 6.9%, an improvement on the 6.6% expected for 2025. However, despite deleveraging and enhanced operating profitability, the return on invested capital (ROIC) is anticipated to remain below the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which is estimated to be 8.2% in 2026.
Total industry revenues are forecasted to reach $1.053 trillion in 2026, marking a 4.5% increase on the $1.008 trillion expected in 2025. Load factors are anticipated to continue setting record highs, with airlines expected to fill 83.8% of all seats over the year 2026. Passenger numbers are expected to rise to 5.2 billion in 2026, a 4.4% increase from 2025. Cargo volumes are expected to grow to 71.6 million tonnes in 2026, up 2.4% from 2025.
Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General, highlighted that airlines are projected to generate a 3.9% net margin and a $41 billion profit in 2026, which is welcome news considering the industry's challenges, including rising costs from bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain, geopolitical conflicts, sluggish global trade, and growing regulatory burdens. Walsh noted that airlines have successfully developed shock-absorbing resilience, contributing to stable profitability.
Walsh emphasized that industry-level margins remain modest compared to the value airlines create by connecting people and economies. He pointed out that airlines stand at the core of a value chain supporting nearly 4% of the global economy and 87 million jobs. However, he remarked on the disparity within the air transport value chain, particularly when compared to the margins of engine and avionics manufacturers.
Air cargo's performance has been noteworthy, defying predictions of decline amid changing trading conditions. Walsh praised air cargo's resilience, highlighting its role in adapting to a protectionist US tariff regime and supporting global trade through robust e-commerce and semiconductor shipments.
Walsh concluded that air cargo's critical role is evident as the global economy adjusts to new realities, underscoring its importance in delivering products ahead of tariff deadlines and accommodating demand surges as tariffed goods found new markets.