Amman: The Arab world's population has reached 501 million, making it the third most populous region globally after China and India, according to figures released Monday by Jordan's Higher Population Council.
According to Jordan News Agency, roughly 60 percent of Arabs reside in the African part of the region, primarily in Egypt, Sudan, Algeria, and Morocco, which together account for just over half of the total population. The findings are released ahead of the Arab Population and Development Day, observed Tuesday, marking the anniversary of the Arab Council for Population and Development's establishment in 2019.
The council highlighted that the occasion provides an opportunity to assess demographic trends across the Arab world, enhance regional cooperation on development goals, and share knowledge about how population dynamics influence sustainable growth. In a brief issued to commemorate the day, the council stated that Arab countries exhibit wide variations in population size and structure, each at a different stage of demographic transition. A thorough understanding of past and projected shifts is essential, given their lasting impact on labor markets, economic growth, housing demand, and access to education, healthcare, and social services.
The Arab population is projected to rise to 548 million by the end of the decade and reach 591 million by 2035, which represents an increase of 90 million in 10 years, with an average annual growth of 1.65 percent. If this trend continues, the population is expected to reach 756 million by mid-century.
The report also underscores sharp contrasts in fertility rates across the region. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Tunisia recorded the lowest fertility rates at or below two children per woman, which is below the replacement level. Fertility rates ranged between 2.1 and 2.9 in Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Syria, Djibouti, and Egypt. Meanwhile, Algeria, Iraq, and Palestine recorded rates between 3 and 3.9, while Yemen, Somalia, and Mauritania topped the list with rates above 4.5 children per woman.
Despite these differences, Arab societies largely remain youthful. In lower-income countries, children under 15 constitute at least one-third of the population, with 47 percent in Somalia, 45 percent in Yemen, and 41 percent in both Mauritania and Sudan, posing development challenges in education and healthcare sectors. By contrast, Gulf states report some of the lowest shares of children under 15: 14 percent in Qatar, 16 percent in the UAE, and 18 percent in Kuwait, reflecting declining fertility and significant inflows of young migrant workers.
Older adults (65 and over) comprise less than 5 percent of the population in most Arab countries, with Qatar and the UAE having the smallest share below 2 percent due to their young expatriate populations. Tunisia, Lebanon, Morocco, and Algeria record the highest proportions of older adults, at 10, 8, and 7 percent respectively, driven in part by significant emigration.